Risk of 'Megafires' to Increase as Climate Warms

Scientists, using new imaging technology aboard two NASA satellites, predict that indeed a warming planet will lead to...more 'megafires.' With more and longer drought periods predicted for Hawaii on both the wet and dry sides, our islands will also most likely experience an increase in wildfire occurrence and severity as the climate changes. 

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Projected changes in the number of days exceeding the 93rd percentile of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) by the mid 21st century (2041-2070) under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Dark red shading indicates the largest increases, while the pale green hows small decreases. Red triangles and blue dots show recent extreme wildfire events as per previous figure. Source: Bowman et al. (2017)

From the Source:

"Recent research shows that the number of days wildfires are likely to burn each year is increasing as global temperatures rise. And the new study finds that extreme wildfires are likely to become more widespread in future, Bowman says:

'Climate change projections suggest that the geographic footprint of dangerous fire weather is likely to expand globally.'"

"The findings make a compelling case that adds to the mounting evidence on the increasing risk of wildfires, adds Giglio:

'Clearly on the current path we can expect a greater risk of extreme fires in much of the world. The outlook for the western United States is particularly worrying.'

While the publication of this study on the anniversary of Black Tuesday is a 'fortuitous coincidence', says Bowman, it highlights that the combination of cities surrounded by flammable forests and increasing wildfire risk 'will lead to more fire disasters'.

When Spark Meets Sprawl: Building in Wildlands Increases Fire Risk

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Sand Fire. (Credit - Center for Investigative Reporting)

An incredibly thorough and comprehensive Center for Investigative multimedia article with many facts, figures, maps, images, and soundbites that is definitely worth checking out! This is the article to read if you want to learn more about the current state of the "Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)" and the continuing risks developing into the wildlands presents for communities and our natural resources.

From the Source:

"Nationally, more than a third of new homes built since 2000 are in WUI areas. What has happened, wildfire historian Stephen J. Pyne wrote in 2008, is that we’re “leaving natural growth alone and then stuffing the openings with combustible structures.”

“Stephen J. Pyne, the wildfire historian, said that unless there’s coherent and coordinated policy that looks at development and forest management, these problems will be difficult to solve.

‘Otherwise, you’re just in the whack-a-mole mode and you’re not going to win,’ Pyne said. ‘In cities, every fire you put out is a problem solved. In wildlands, every fire you put out is a problem put off.’”

Blue Cut Fire in Southern California Updates and Stories (VIDEOS, PHOTOS)

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"Driving along the 138, everything looks scorched." Credit: @Brittny_Mejia

Wildfire season is off to a heavy start in California. 3 large wildfires - Blue Cut, Clayton, and Chimney - have collectively burned over 43,000 acres and destroyed over 200 homes. Many firefighters are claiming they have never seen fire behavior from these fires quite like they have this year. We keep hearing this year after year. The new norm is the abnormal with climate change.

Our thoughts are with all of those who have lost loved ones, homes and valuables through the rash of wildfires burning through California. Big shoutout to the first responders who have put their lives on the line during these harrowing fires.

From the Source:

"Paik said he has lived intermittently in his van over the last two days. When he left his house Tuesday night, he said, he didn't bring anything with him, but returned to his powerless home the next day to get clothes and his passport.

'The firemen worked hard,' he said. 'I had … confidence, maybe overconfidence, so I just brought nothing.'"

"Firefighters use standard guidelines to maneuver amid a fire, he said, prioritizing life safety over property conservation and property conservation over environmental protection. But there is no one-size-fits-all approach.

'It helps the firefighters,' he said, 'but every fire is different.  There’s not a set ‘If this is happening, do this.’ It’s all up to the best judgment of the firefighters.'"

As Peat Bogs Burn, A Climate Threat Rises

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"A peat sample showing the history of wildfires dating back hundreds of years. Scientists can trace the history of wildfires to better understand how the peat land acts as a carbon sink." (Ed Ou/New York Times)

Did you know that peatlands make up about 3 percent of the earth's land surface, but contain more carbon cumulatively than all of our trees and plants on this Earth? Can you imagine if these areas go up in flames? Check out this very interesting New York Times piece about the effect climate change is having on our peatlands and the potential for a shockingly immense amount of carbon release. 

From the Source:

“They take thousands of years to develop,” said Merritt Turetsky, a peat researcher at the University of Guelph in Ontario. “And in five minutes, a wildfire can blow through that area and release five to six hundred years of peat accumulation and change it forever.”

“Drier peat allows more oxygen to get to the roots of trees and other vegetation. This causes them to grow bigger, which means they use more water, further drying the peat.

As trees grow, they also provide more shade, which favors the growth of other mosses that, because they hold less moisture than sphagnum, are less fire resistant.

When the bog does catch fire, it may be more severe, with the combustion spreading deeper into the peat.”

Illegal Campfire Sparked Huge Big Sur-area Wildfire

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"A burnt bicycle and car sit beside the ruins of a home that was destroyed by the Soberanes Fire in Palo Colorado Canyon on the northern Big Sur Coast on July 26, 2016, in Big Sur, Calif." (David Royal/The Monterey County Herald via AP)

As is commonly said: "all it takes is one spark." Investigators have traced the now 43,000 acre brushfire burning through the beautiful Carmel, Big Sur, and Pebble Beach areas to a single illegal campfire. Dozens of homes have been destroyed by the dramatic fire. When it comes to campfires and BBQs, clear vegetation 10 feet around and above them. Keep a shovel and water nearby and put the fire out COLD before walking away. Avoid open fires when it is windy or grass and brush are dry and make sure to follow any regulations regarding fire use.

From the Source:

"Whoever built and then abandoned the fire around July 22 in the Garrapata State Park could face criminal and civil penalties for sparking the blaze, which has now burned more than 43,000 acres near Carmel, Big Sur and the Pebble Beach golf resort. Authorities said hikers who reported the fire had to first climb up to a ridge top to get mobile phone reception."

"Calif. Gov. Jerry Brown has declared a state of emergency to free up resources for firefighting efforts, and several neighborhoods remain evacuated. Homes in the area are spread amongst the hills, linked by narrow roads winding through the tree-and-brush-covered landscape parched by the state’s ongoing drought. Due to the drought and fire risk, campfires outside of campgrounds are barred in large sections of California."

Region Ripe for Possibly Worst Wildfire Season in Southern California: Officials

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"Embers burn as firefighters approach a brush fire in the foothills outside of Calabasas, Calif. on Saturday, June 4, 2016. A fast-moving brush fire sweeping through hills northwest of downtown Los Angeles has damaged homes and prompted neighborhood evacuations. Los Angeles County fire officials now say the brushfire is threatening about 3,000 homes in the Calabasas neighborhood." Credit: AP

Even with the recent rains, Hawaii is not out of the woods, yet. Most of the leeward areas are still classified as being in a drought and potentially rain could let up during the summer. 

California is dealing with a drought of their own, and it may not be looking good for Southern California, especially. As with Hawaii, they received periodic rains from El Nino that spurred quick growth of grass and brush, but once they dry out, they can quickly become a fire hazard.

From the Source:

“‘We've seen a big change in our brush growth this year,’ he said. ‘So some of our annual crops, our grass, are a lot higher than they previously have been. We do still have some of our dead trees in the local mountains that will create problems for us, so we're expecting, as you have heard before, one of the worst fire seasons ever.’”

“Los Angeles County Fire Department Chief Daryl Osby said El Nino brought just enough rain to fuel the growth of grass and brush that can drive fires during the dry summer months.”

“‘It is only a matter of time, so the time to begin to prepare is now,’ he said. ‘Despite the cool, foggy weather that we're under this morning, it will not last, and the Santa Ana winds will be upon us before we know it. Residents must be prepared for the inevitable wildfires, because it is part of living in this beautiful state.’”

“Fire officials urged residents to act now to clear brush from around their homes, creating a defensible space that can help stop or slow the spread of wildfires. Moore said residents living in wildfire-prone areas need to create a plan for evacuating if a blaze threatens their home.”

Organizations Kick Off Wildfire and Drought Look Out! Campaign

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Credit - Molly Solomon/HPR

HWMO and its partners statewide worked together to launch Wildfire & Drought Look Out!, Hawaii's first coordinated statewide wildfire outreach campaign. Here are a number of news clippings from TV, radio, and newspaper sources and the links to each source.

KHON2:

“‘I have been preparing for it for years now,’ said Momoa. ‘Ever since I moved in there, I could see the vision that it was going to burn soon.’”

Big Island Now:

“‘We have set up both a public and a media page on the HWMO website. The public page will have loads of information for home and property owners on how best to prepare for the possibility of wildfire well in advance,’ said HWMO Executive Director Elizabeth Pickett. ‘We’ll include water saving information which is really topical during this prolonged drought event in many areas across the state, largely caused by El Nino weather conditions.’

HWMO will also maintain and manage a media page, where partners can contribute story ideas and leads for reporters and their news organizations.”

Maui News:

“Prevention suggestions include:

* Clearing combustible materials near homes and lanais.

* Keeping grass short and tree branches off of the ground.

* Creating a defensible space at least 100 feet around a home.

* Removing leaves and debris from gutters and roofs.

* Covering eaves and vents with -inch mesh.

* Creating and practicing a family evacuation plan.”

HPR:

“With an above-average fire season ahead, state officials stress a need for public awareness. Hawai‘i Wildfire Management Organization is a nonprofit that’s working with federal, state and local agencies to kick start a campaign to provide information and tips for homeowners. More information can be found on their website, hawaiiwildfire.org.”

Honolulu Civil Beat:

More than 60 percent of the state is experiencing moderate drought conditions, and parts of the Big Island are facing extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

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Credit - Clay Trauernicht

“We hope this campaign, which has both a public and a media component, will educate and inform everyone living in and visiting Hawaii about the year-around threat of wildfires,” DLNR Director Suzanne Case said in a release.

Hookele News:

“The campaign seeks to educate homeowners and communities and empower them to take proactive steps that reduce the chances of wildfire ignition and create safer conditions for our firefighters.”

Hawaii Faces Increased Wildfire Risk This Summer

Nationally, Hawaii is on the map this year (along with Alaska and the Southwest) as being an area of "increased danger for significant wildland fires from May through August" according to a new report from the National Interagency Fire Center.

Our partners Clay Trauernicht, from University of Hawaii CTAHR Cooperative Extension, and Captain David Jenkins, from Honolulu Fire Department, do a great job in this Hawaii News Now report to explain the current drought and wildfire situation and what that means for Hawaii visitors and residents.  Stay tuned for the statewide wildfire prevention and preparedness campaign set to launch real soon!

From the Source:

'We've sort of been tracking the progression of the drought, so we're pretty well aware that we're facing an above-average fire season for the summer,' said Clay Trauernicht, a wildfire specialist with the University of Hawaii Cooperative Extension.

'We're seeing reports of El Nino subsiding, but what that means for us is, it's sort of leading us right into our summertime dry season. So even though it's going to look like a normal summer, we have this big rainfall deficit from the wintertime,' Trauernicht said.

Several agencies are working together and will soon be launching a new wildfire prevention and preparedness campaign to help keep communities safe.

'There's a lot of things you can do both to prevent fires from starting, as well as reducing fire risks around your homes,' Trauernicht said."

Worsening Drought Signals Wildfire Stricken Summer

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Credit: KITV4

El Nino may be weakening, but that doesn't mean its effects are...in fact, we haven't realized the full impact of its effects just yet. Hawaii's current drought is expected to worsen which means a higher potential for more wildfires. May is Wildfire Preparedness Month. Learn how you can take action today!

From the Source:

"Although those dry conditions from El Nino are weakening, a drought-stricken Summer is right around the corner. 

'This year we're well ahead of schedule for how dry we are,' said Ian Morrison, Meteorologist for the National Weather Service. 'We're about three months ahead of where we would normally be. So we're about to reach a threshold in Hawai'i where normally we wouldn't hit that threshold until July.' 

That dryness translates to parched vegetation, a wildfires food of choice. 

'Most of the fuels are going to be very dry on the Leeward side,' Morrison added. 'So they're going to be much easier to start fires, and much easier  to maintain fires.'"

"Though there is hope for more rain next Winter, it falls on the responsibility of everyone to help keep brush and wildfires to a minimum this season."

Drought Intensifies in Hawaii, Extreme Conditions in Kona

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Credit: United States Drought Monitor

El Niño is causing severe drought conditions in much of Hawaii Island and the rest of the state is now experiencing moderate drought. With dry conditions come the potential for wildfires. Be aware of your surroundings and make sure to remove all dead or dry grasses, shrubs, or trees around your home.

From the Source:

"'Farmers on the Kona slopes of the Big Island have indicated that conditions are the worst in recent memory,' the NWS stated, 'even including 2010 which was a significant drought year for the area. Kona coffee growers have indicated that the drought will adversely affect this year’s crop.'"

"There are troubling reports even in the normally wet Hilo and Puna districts. 'A rancher near Pahoa reported selling 20 percent of his herd due to poor pasture conditions,' the National Weather Service reported. 'Another rancher who works on the upper slopes of the South Hilo district reported the loss of 28 cows due to the lack of rain and the poor forage. In upper Hilo town, an aquaculture operation lost sturgeon because of low stream flow conditions.'"

Despite Recent Rain, Drought Conditions Expected to Last Long Into Summer

Credit: West Hawaii Today

You might be able to see it just outside your bedroom window: the landscape around you starting to look drier and drier. Forecasts are calling for severe droughts for most of Hawaiʻi throughout the year (and possibly beyond). There are a number of steps you can take to make sure you stay a few steps ahead of the many wildfires on the way, both on wet and dry sides. 

From the Source:

"These sudden downpours are part of the pattern, said Elizabeth Pickett, executive director of the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, based in Waimea. The moisture stays just long enough to encourage vegetation growth, then it disappears and takes its time coming back."

"A coordinated group of federal, state and county fire officials have declared a wildfire and drought lookout, said Pickett. Officials with the National Park Service, U.S. Army, and Hawaii County Fire Department and the state Division of Forestry and Wildlife are on alert, she said.

'The forecast is really dismal as far as long dry periods and vegetation growth,' Pickett said.

The public will see the agencies roll out a wildfire awareness campaign in May in coordination with the national Wildfire Awareness Month, Pickett said.

Residents can do simple things to protect themselves from wildfire. They include landscaping with native plants -- most of which are naturally fire resistant -- and cutting down and removing brush and other fuel from near their homes.

'Many (introduced) plants that don't get enough water during a drought will drop their leaves and create a fire hazard,' Pickett said. 

Drought Conditions Fueling Brush Fire Potential

Screenshot from KHON2 video.

A statewide drought means more wildfires. Check out this KHON2 video on the current state of the drought, what this means for wildfire potential, and tips for making sure your family is safe from wildfire.

From the Source:

"So how can you prepare?

Fire officials say if you live in an area near lots of dry grass you should create a 30-foot safety zone around your home.

You should make sure to remove leaves or other combustibles that could help the fire spread.

Also, make sure your family has an evacuation plan in case you have to leave your home.

'Just a few weeks of dry season or very dry weather can bring water content down on the vegetation and could bring your home into harms way,' said Jenkins."

Small Structure Burns Down in Waimea Fire

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Photo Credit: Keoni Delacruz Veloria

A wildfire in Waimea (Kamuela), our home base, burned 125 acres of pastureland and burned down a structure that supported power to a nearby residence on Monday, March 28th. Creating defensible space not only around the home, but around all structures is very important for wildfire readiness purposes. We are glad to hear no one was injured and no homes were lost thanks to firefighter efforts!

From the Source:

"Weather conditions on the island haven't helped the situation, and residents shouldn't look for those conditions to improve markedly any time soon.

Maureen Ballard, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Honolulu, said a front is situated over Maui County but is dissipating as it moves along -- limiting its potential to generate rainfall. She added that there are likely trade winds to follow, but they will be drier trades, probably creating only a few lighter afternoon showers.

Hawaii's Wildland Firefighters Need More Resources

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Three DOFAW firefighters watch as smoke billows from a distance. Credit: DOFAW.

Front page headlines!

With the ever-growing problem of wildfires statewide, Hawaii's first responders have faced numerous challenges accessing adequate resources to ensure communities and natural resources are out of harm's way. This is a great article that highlights the underlying issues of wildfire in Hawaii, the current realities of wildfire suppression across the state, and tactics that may help alleviate these issues. The answer: improved resources for wildland firefighting and a focus on pre-fire mitigation.

From the Source:

"Experts say both the frequency and size of wildfires have steadily grown in recent decades as changing weather patterns and invading fire-prone, non-native grasses and shrubs have put Hawaii’s forests and natural areas at greater risk of fire.

Data from a recent Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization study indicate that the average area burned each year in Hawaii has climbed by 400 percent over the past century.

The study also shows that an average of more than 17,000 acres has burned each year over the past decade, with some years exceeding even the most fire-prone Western states.

In fact, a greater percentage of Hawaii is under high risk of wildfire than any of the other 16 westernmost states, according to an assessment by the Council of Western State Foresters."

"Clay Trauernicht, extension fire specialist with the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said the state needs to provide more realistic funding levels to help protect the state’s natural areas in the face of a rapidly growing wildfire threat."

"Cutting firebreaks, reducing vegetation and brush, and working with landowners to provide access for water and vehicles help to minimize the size of fires, their impacts and their potential danger to firefighters, he said."

"Trauernicht said the state should consider establishing a full-time team dedicated solely to wildfires. Not only would it improve the division’s initial response, but the team could also conduct pre- and post-fire activities when not responding to fires, he said."

Parched: Driest January on Record for Parts of West Hawaii

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"Charred earth from the recent fire near Palamanui is seen along side of dry grass from the persisting drought in North Kona. (Laura Shimabuku/West Hawaii Today)"

What is on pace for the 2nd strongest El Nino on record is not good news for those worried about wildfire. The key take away is that even if your area is considered "wet side", when there is no rain, the rainforest can burn. 

Here's a news piece with quotes from our Executive Director, Elizabeth Pickett, and a long-time partner of ours, Jen Lawson, who directs the Waikoloa Dry Forest Initiative.

From the Source:

"The Pacific is experiencing what will likely pan out to be the second strongest El Nino on record, behind only 1997-98. True to pattern, a snuffing out of the normal trade wind pattern and its accompanying showers are following the El Nino. If the past is any indication and long-term predictions hold up, there may be no relief in sight through April."

"West Hawaii had a very wet summer, leading to high loads of vegetation which have now dried out, causing concern for fire management officials. In Waikoloa, expanses of invasive buffelgrass and fountain grass have become parched, said Jen Lawson, who directs the Waikoloa Dry Forest Initiative.

'We’ve had no precipitation at the forest in more than 12 weeks,' she said. 'Wildfire is what we are thinking most about now.”

Kodama said light winds have helped spare dry areas from fast-spreading fires. But that could change as winds pick up going into spring and conditions continue to dry out, he said.

Elizabeth Pickett, executive director of the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, said her group will be stepping up its fire safety outreach in the face of the drought.

'We have a pretty high hazard out there; now is time to be proactive and really be aware of the fire issue,' Pickett said. 'We’re getting very concerned.'"

CTAHR Researchers Construct 108-Year Wildfire History Impacting Hawaiian Islands

"Flames move uphill in Oahu wildfire." Credit: PFX

Our partners from UH CTAHR, Drs. Clay Trauernicht and Creighton Litton are developing some fascinating research regarding 108-years of wildfire history in Hawaii. 

From the Source:

"In a paper published in Pacific Science, Trauernicht, Litton and collaborators drew on multiple sources to construct a 108-year fire history that demonstrates a more-than-fourfold increase in the area burned annually statewide in recent decades. Within the past decade, the state has experienced an average of more than 1,000 fires burning over 20,000 acres each year. Relative to total land area, the percentage of Hawai‘i that burned annually from 2005 to 2011 was comparable to, and in some years exceeded, that of the western United States."

"'Given the increasing threat of wildfire to communities and resources, and its disregard for property lines, wildfire management provides an opportunity to bring together diverse interests and stakeholders to work towards a common goal,” said Trauernicht.'"

Lower Sea Temperatures Could Bring Positive Conditions for Stressed Coral

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Credit: West Hawaii Today

Good news in the short-term with coral recovery after a stressful El Nino summer for our precious coastal resources. However, in the long run, our coral reefs face a number of challenges, one of those being post-fire runoff from wildfires. We are expected for a very dry winter, which could mean an uptick in wildfires. An increase in wildfires could mean more trouble for our reefs once the exposed soil is potentially washed out to sea by rainfall.

From the Source:

"'Many of the bleached corals in Kaneohe Bay are now showing signs of recovery — that is, their color is returning to normal darker brown rather than very pale brown or white that was the state of play in the middle of the bleaching event in September,' Gates said. 'The immediate threat to corals associated with higher than normal sea water temperatures has receded. The longer term impact of the bleaching event remain to be seen, sometimes bleached corals recover but they fail to reproduce the following year. This is not good.'"

"On land, El Nino is expected to dry out the Big Island and even cause drought, especially in leeward areas where the winter tends to be the dry season anyway. Fire personnel also expect the dry weather ahead to raise fire danger because of a massive fuel load created when vegetation flourished during heavy rainfall this summer."

Fire Endangers Kohala Again as Kawaihae Blaze Carries Memories of Destructive Summer Fire

"The wreckage from a semi and fire truck collision is seen on Kawaihae Road Friday afternoon. Laura Shimabuku/West Hawaii Today"

The first sign of a busy winter occurred in Kawaihae this week. Although the area turned green and lush after the large summer Kawaihae fire that scarred 4,000+ acres, that also meant more plant growth and thus more fuel for the next fire. Within a few months, a chunk of the area that burned in August burned again. We call this the fire cycle. 

Unfortunately, two HFD firefighters were injured when responding to the wildfire. Our thoughts and prayers go out to them and their ohana and we hope for a speedy recovery. We must give thanks everyday (not just on Thanksgiving) to the incredible firefighters who put their bodies and lives on the line to protect our communities and natural resources from fire. 

From the Source:

"The residents of Kawaihae Village had another immediate view of the progressing blaze, as several watched the varying size of the smoke column, the actions of the Fire Department’s water-dropping helicopters and efforts of ground-based firefighters."

"Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira said on Monday that they expect the upcoming dry season to have numerous fires. The unusually heavy rains encouraged plant growth, he said, particularly fountain grass. The invasive species survives fires, unlike native life, and 'makes excellent fuel for fires,' according to the Hawaii Invasive Species Council.

Oliveira said fountain grass forms the majority of fuel in the wildfires they see."

Conditions Ripe for Explosive Wildfire Season in Southern California

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"Jim Kilgore of San Bernardino runs from a ball of flame. (Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)"

All it takes is one spark. The phrase has gained more and more meaning each year across the globe. From Hawaii to Southern California, a combination of droughts and winds and abnormal weather spurred by El Niño may have a dramatic effect on fire behavior this fall/winter. 

Here's a great article about the enormous effect the Santa Ana winds have on dangerous fire behavior in Southern California (and how it will most likely be worse this year.)

From the Source:

"'That's the scary part of the Santa Anas. They blow from the source into where people live. That wasn't necessarily true 50 years ago. But people more and more are living in what I call 'Santa Ana corridors,' ' said William Patzert, climatologist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

While non-Santa Ana fires tend to burn in more remote areas, such as national forests and rugged wild lands, Santa Ana fires descend on more populated areas including along the coast, where higher property values and more residents are at stake, said Yufang Jin, assistant professor at UC Davis' Department of Land, Air and Water Resources and lead author of the study...

Fires in Southern California will only get more intense with climate change, according to the UC study. The study projects that by mid-century, as the region gets hotter and drier, non-Santa Ana fires will increase 77%, and Santa Ana fires by 64%...

Santa Anas also tend to generate more 'firebrands,' or small burning embers that get cast into the air and spark more blazes ahead of the fire, Sapsis said. They tend to start fires that burn nearby homes...

'With these extreme conditions, it literally does just take a spark,' she said. 'If we could take that out of the equation, we're going to be in a much better position.'"

Rain Poses Unique Challenges for Ranchers

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Credit: K. Kendall/Flickr

El Niño is having a particular impact on ranchers that may in turn impact fire behavior. Too much 'off and on' rainfall is creating grass that cattle have trouble digesting. A long period of drought during the winter won't help either. 

From the Source:

"Rain may be good for farmers, but the sporadic 'off and on' downpours Maui has seen in the last two months have some ranchers on edge.  Kaupo Ranch Manager Billy Ferreira said his cattle need to adjust to eating the green, moist grass.  In the short term, the high moisture content of the 'washy feed' could upset the stomachs of cattle.

What concerns him most is that the heavy rains now means a drier winter later.  Meteorologists say rain during the normally dry summer is likely the result of the El Nino effect that typically causes wetter-than-normal summers and drier winters. Ranchers like Ferreira worry a very dry winter could last until spring."